WIth the emergence of Justin Fields late in the season, and the Bears holding the first pick in the draft overall, they have a lot of holes to fill. One hole they don’t is at QB. This makes the first overall selection up for grabs, and the Bears are all to willing to listen to any and all offers.
This is like the Golden Ticket from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.
Trade Up
It almost seems like a foregone conclusions amongst all mock draft analysts that Indianapolis will trade up to get the first pick overall. Then it becomes, which QB do they covet the most? For me, it should be Will Levis, and while many may not agree with that sentiment, Levis is the most pro ready QB in this draft. Levis will be throwing at the combine.
If the Colts don’t move up to get their QB, they could sit at 4 and see if he lands to them. The only QB needy team in the top 4 is Houston, but the Colts have to entertain the idea of another team jumping them to get their QB, which may be the Colts pick for the future.
All I know, a lot can happen prior to and on draft day.
Scouting Combine
This leads me to the scouting combine and this is the last of the scouting trips prior to pro days. The scouting combine had been a great event to truly scout such raw talent. Now, there are prep camps for the combine to help increase your 40 time, or bench reps, etc. In a sense, a player can pay money to get ready for the combine and have his stock rise based on a sub 4.4 40 because the evaluation will generate interest and create that golden ticket.
So while the Scouting Combine takes place over this weekend, I will be reviewing the data and determining positioning based on the data and see if there were any big movers and shakers.
Top 5 QB’s in 2023
For now, I will elect to provide my Top 5 QB’s in the draft as of this moment.
1. Will Levis, Kentucky
When I watch Will Levis play, I cannot help but think about Ben Roethlisberger, and in no manner am I comparing a Hall of Fame career to a guy who has not stepped on an NFL field yet. But a lot of the attributes are there. Levis is 6’3 230lbs, has a cannon for an arm, a quick release, and has shown the most pro ready attributes in the draft. Levis originally enrolled at Penn State, but seemed to be buried on the depth chart the first 2 seasons, which prompted him to enter the transfer portal.
Transferring to Kentucky, made him the immediate starter, but you have to remember, Kentucky does not have the world class recruiting like Penn State nor any other SEC school, so the road for Levis to be good at a consistent level was going to be a rocky one. 2021 was by far his best season in college and it showed considering Kentucky had a lot of talent that could go to the next level as the supporting cast. Levis completed 66% of his passes throwing 24TD’s and 13INT’s.
Levis is not a generational QB and I don’t think we had seen one since Andrew Luck. But Levis works hard and tries to improve. He makes some bad decisions, but outside of the other two QB’s from national powerhouse schools, Levis would benefit from playing behind all world talent other schools have.
Prediction: 1st overall after Bears trade with Indianapolis
2. Bryce Young, Alabama
In 2021, Bryce Young was the Heisman trophy winner. Without a doubt he had the best season a QB could have. But he is also an Alabama QB. Playing QB at Alabama in the past was seemingly easy to get you to the next level. The rest of the team was so good, that the QB didn’t have to light the world on fire to come out with a win, and a national championship. Bryce Young was no different, until 2022 came around. His numbers were still off the charts, but with a mediocre offensive line, Young had a hard time being a pocket passer and relied more on his legs to make plays happen.
Even though Young is a Heisman Trophy winner, there is a stigma with Alabama QB’s that succeed in Tuscaloosa, but not in the NFL. An abundance of Alabama talent has come out of Tuscaloosa, but their success in the NFL has been mediocre to say the least. Young is a little undersized at 6 foot 194lbs, but what he lacks in size, he makes up for in grit. I would never question Bryce Young’s commitment to succeed, but he has to be in the right situation and it’s possible that Houston could be the beneficiary of Bryce Young.
Prediction: 2nd overall to tthe Houston Texans
3. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
C.J. Stroud has much more phyiscal traits that are likeable by the NFL and their scouts. He does have a small frame, but that can be worked with a good off season of training. Stroud is not the kind of QB that will look to run if the pocket breaks down. He keeps his eyes downfield in order to make plays. He understands his limitations and what he has on the field around him. Let the playmakers make plays, just get them the ball.
2022 was a dominant season for Stroud throwing for nearly 3700 yards, a total of 41 TD’s and just 6 INT’s. It was a dip from his numbers in 2021 with over 70% completion rating and nearly 1000 more yards thrown,and a QBR of nearly 10 points higher. Statistically, Stroud has the production part of his portfolio polished ad ready to go. Unfortunately, his physical and technical resumes are lacking of a proficient and sound signal caller. There are minor issues with his pocket presence and looking off receivers to get to different progressive reads. The pre-snap and post-snap progression is longer to process what is happening instead of recognizing what the defense if giving you.
Stroud generally works the middle and deeo zones fairly well, but his short zone accuracy tends to be weak and lazy. Stroud has a tendency to be flat footed and using arm strength and height to finesse the ball to the receiver instead of stepping into the throw and providing any chance for the receiver to catch and run. The combine will be interesting if he decides to throw, but most of his flaws are fixable if he puts in the work.
Prediction: 7 Overall to Las Vegas Raiders
4. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Hendon Hooker burst onto the scene in 2022 because of the dominating performance Tennessee started the season with. Hooker was a big part of that success and even had the Vols talking about the playoffs and potential National Championship contenders. It wasn’t until a late season loss which put the Vols out of contention.
The benefit of a guy like Hendon Hooker is that he has great, even close to ideal, NFL size. A strong arm, experience, and understands the position. His first two seasons in college were spent at Virginia Tech, but he transferred to Tennessee after his 2nd season with the Hokies. Hooker’s statistics didn’t falter with the change of environment. Hooker actually got better and was producing at a much higher level with the Vols. His TD to INT ratio is exceptional. In 2022 he threw 27 TD’s to just 2 INT’s. In 2021 He threw 31 TD’s to just 3 INT’s.
The likely reason to why he is not being hyped as the best overall QB in college football is his age. He is 25 years old with his birthday being in January. He is an older prospect, but while that shouldn’t matter, it does. NFL teams want the younger QB because they are generally healthier, and have less wear and tear on their frames. Outside of the age, Hooker shows every trait you could ask for in a franchise QB.
Prediction: 20 Overall to Seattle Seahawks
5. Anthony Richardson, Florida
When I first heard of Anthony Richardson, he was being mocked to the Washington Commanders after having 66 snaps under his belt. I watched Richardson from this point on in order to get a better feel for what he is.
A project. A major project. His potential is through the roof and I am not the fan of drafting on potential. He doesn’t have but a season of starting experience, which was not an explosive performance. His throwing motion leads to a lot of erratic and less accurate throws. Essentially, his floor is really low. He is a raw athlete with a lot of potential qualities that could make him an elite NFL QB.
If there is a team that is patient enough to develop Richardson with the intent of that development taking 2 years, he is going to have to take a lot of time to break down a lot of the bad mechanics he has now, and make new habits form quickly. He has a strong arm, but its not elite. He does not have elite speed, but his size allows him to be durable. He has trouble escaping the pocket but has good vision when he is outside of the pocket. Doesn’t really step up into the pocket to let it pass him, he turns and runs backward.
Again, all learning points for Richardson, but his potential is astronomical, it’s just going to be a long project with a lot of coaching and film study.
Projection: 30 Overall to New Orleans Saints
Don’t agree with me, or have a different list, by all means, comment below! Let me know your throughts.