2023 NFL Draft in kansas city
The NLF Draft will take place in 7 days, and yet, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the QB selections and where each one will go. If you want to see where I have them going, check out the latest 2023 NFL Mock Draft. The quality of the QB class was not quite as good as it was hyped to be, but this years 2023 NFL Draft should see a lot of movement up and down the draft order.
For the first time in a long time, a RB could go in the top 10. Bijan Robinson is rated as high as 4 overall in some draft boards, and he sould be the first RB taken in the first round since Ezekiel Elliot. There is a slight chance that 2 RB’s go in the first round with Jahmyr Gibbs potentially going late to the Bills.
In the 2023 NFL Draft class, the premium positions have shifted a bit since 2022. If you’re confused, that’s ok. I wrote an article on the macropremiums and micropremium positions which you can read here. This year there is a micropremium on Safeties, Interior Offensive Lineman, and Defensive Tackles.
WHAT TO EXPECT
The 2023 NFL Draft should be a wild one, at least more than some of the previous draft locations since moving away from Radio City Music Hall.
Per normal, I will be watching and doing live grades (which I hate becuase it’s my own bias against people who are paid to do this).
I think the biggest questiion will be which team is going to roll the dice on Anthony Richardson? The spectrum for his talent is extremely broad. All of the testing in the world cannot takeaway the game tape and inconsistencies and errors he had in 2022. He is just very raw and while a team will take a chance, he likely won’t start til 2024. So a vet or stable rookie should be in place to allow Richardson to develop. It’s the primary reason I thought the Texans would take him, because Davis Mills is still on a rookie contract, has starting experience, and could be used for a trade if he plays marginally well.
BIGGEST IMPACT
This draft is going to have a big impact on numerous teams and players, but none more than Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia. He is conistently touted as the best player in the draft, but his off field issues and attitude has pushed him down the boards a little. He seems to be a similar player to Ndamokung Suh.
The teams that need QB’s are going to have the spotlight on them this entire season. If Carolina goes with Stroud, it would be worth the draft capital they used to go up to #1 overall. In a weird way, I could see Reich taking Will Levis becuase of the prototype that Levis delivers for Frank Reich’s preferences, wouldn’t that buck a trend and come out of left field.
Downside
I cannot tell you how much I despise the analysis that goes on after a pick has happened. For example: The Carolina Panthers take C.J. Stroud. I would rather hear the speculation on the next pick then to go over why the best QB in the draft is the 1st overall pick. We all know this prior to coming to the draft. If the Panthers take Bryce Young, now it becomes a 10 minute discussion about his height and if he were to magically grow 4 inches and add 30 lbs of muscle, it’s irrelevant.
There is just so much time filler, and what boggles my mind is simply that, the only reason the first round gets 10 minute time slots, is so teams can have time field calls for trades. They are not undecided about what pick they want to go with, they are fieldling calls from other teams to see what is the greatest ROI from a trade. PERIOD.
the slide
Every NFL Draft, there is a player that slides down the boards because the NFL experts valued him highly, and NFL teams did not. Geno Smith is a great example. Aaron Rodgers is another. Geno Smith went from a high end first round prospect to being drafted on the 2nd day of the NFL Draft. He was the only guy sitting in the green room waiting for his number to be called.
While Aaron Rodgers didn’t have to wait that long, he did get picked at 24 overall and even with this short of time prior to the draft, Aaron Rodgers has still not been dealt to New York.
So which player is going to be this years slide? For me, Anthony Richardson is not a first round pick and as a GM you should never draft on potential, especially after the irrelevant scouting combine. Watch the game tape. Richardson is a mid 2nd round prospect because of his athleticism alone. A completion percentage of approximately 50% should easily push you into a 6th or 7th round category. Frankly, I only mock Richardson high because that is what is likely to happen, but not what I feel should happen. My QB list doesn’t include him in the top 5.
- C.J. Stroud
- Bryce Young
- Hendon Hooker
- Will Levis
- Tanner McKee
- Anthony Richardson
the sting
From what I know and understand, there is not a real science behind this like a Moneyball scenario. The draft is a crap shoot with insider trading that allows teams to have all the information they need to determine the best stock to invest in. Personally, if you’re drafting against potential without a solid foundation of improvement from where they started, the consequence of that risk is signifcantly higher than if the production can match the talent. Every prospect has potential, but there are a lot of variables that affect the potential.
Smart GM’s make smart decisions and rely on being truly risk averse. Not a complete brick wall on risk, but certainly more cautious.
No one person can grasp the NFL Draft with the intention of a perfect plan. This is what makes the draft completely fun and interesting to watch, outside of the 10 minutes of analysis on why the team took the pick, and why Mel Kiper and Todd McShay love the pick or don’t like the pick. Find something positive to say in less than a minute and move on.
Enjoy the draft. It will shock you, it will hurt you, it will make you scratch your head. But its the biggest night of a college players life, to be drafted into the NFL. To feel wanted by a team regardless if its 1 overall or Mr. Irrelevant.